ASCE 9780784406724 2005
$75.29
Hydraulic Structures
Published By | Publication Date | Number of Pages |
ASCE | 2005 | 665 |
Walter Wunderlich introduces readers to the field of probability theory and its applications in engineering.
PDF Catalog
PDF Pages | PDF Title |
---|---|
6 | Contents |
20 | 1. Maintenance of the Infrastructure 1.1 The Role of Maintenance |
22 | 1.2 Probabilistic Methods in Maintenance |
27 | 1.3 Areas of Maintenance Activity 1.3.1 General Maintenance Objectives 1.3.2 Maintenance of Structural Integrity |
28 | 1.3.3 Maintenance of System Operation |
29 | 1.3.4 Maintenance Aimed at Incipient Failure Mechanisms |
32 | 1.3.5 Hazard Ratings |
34 | 1.4 State of the Infrastructure 1.4.1 Historical Perspective of the Water Infrastructure |
35 | 1.4.2 Dam Inventory |
42 | 1.4.3 Dam Inspection Findings 1.4.4 National Infrastructure Assessment |
47 | 1.4.5 Dam Incidents and Failures |
51 | 1.5 Regulations and Guidelines in Support of Maintenance 1.5.1 Government Regulations |
53 | 1.5.2 BUREC’s Safety Evaluation of Existing Dams |
57 | 1.5.3 Designer Legacies for Maintenance |
58 | 1.5.4 Standing Operating Procedures |
59 | 1.5.5 Review of Operation and Maintenance |
60 | 1.5.6 FERC Project Engineering Guidelines |
63 | 1.5.7 Maintenance Activities of the USACE |
64 | 1.5.8 Maintenance Activities of the TVA |
66 | 1.6 Probabilistic Maintenance Perceptions of Field Personnel 1.6.1 Survey of Maintenance Personnel |
67 | 1.6.2 Selected Survey Questions |
76 | 1.6.3 Features Desired by Maintenance Personnel |
78 | 2. Elements of Probabilistic Methods 2.1 Sets, Events, and Probabilities 2.1.1 Sets |
82 | 2.1.2 Events and Probabilities |
91 | 2.1.3 Probabilities of Ordinary Sets |
98 | 2.1.4 Conditional Probabilities |
104 | 2.1.5 Bayes’ Formula |
118 | 2.1.6 Murphy’s Law |
119 | 2.2 Probabilistic Variables and Functions 2.2.1 Probabilistic Variables |
122 | 2.2.2 Probabilistic Functions |
123 | 2.2.3 Probabilistic Processes |
133 | 2.2.4 Probabilistic Models |
138 | 2.3 Mean and Variance 2.3.1 Population Mean |
140 | 2.3.2 Population Variance |
141 | 2.3.3 Coefficient of Variation |
142 | 2.4 Calculating with Expectations and Variances 2.4.1 Individual Data Versus Expectation as Input |
145 | 2.4.2 Variance of Linear and Nonlinear Relations |
146 | 2.4.3 Variance of a Sum or Difference |
148 | 2.4.4 Sample Mean and Sample Variance |
155 | 2.4.5 Confidence Bands |
157 | 2.4.6 Chebyshev Inequality |
160 | 2.5 Probability Functions 2.5.1 Probability Density Function |
161 | 2.5.2 Cumulative Distribution Function |
164 | 2.5.3 Moments of the Random Variable |
166 | 2.6 Gaussian Probability Density Function 2.6.1 Derivation of the Probability Density Function |
171 | 2.6.2 Cumulative Distribution Function and Reliability |
182 | 2.6.3 Dispersion of the Probability Density Function |
186 | 2.6.4 Polynomial Approximation and Inversion of the cdf |
192 | 2.6.5 Judgmental Establishment of the pdf |
195 | 2.6.6 Quality Control Based on the pdf |
197 | 2.7 Other Probability Distributions 2.7.1 Selected Distributions |
198 | 2.7.2 Binomial Distribution |
210 | 2.7.3 Uniform Distribution |
213 | 2.7.4 Triangular Distribution |
215 | 2.7.5 Exponential Distribution |
218 | 2.7.6 Beta Distribution |
222 | 2.7.7 Poisson Distribution |
228 | 2.7.8 Weibull Distribution |
235 | 2.7.9 Student’s t-Distribution |
244 | 3. Calculating with Random Variables 3.1 Prediction 3.1.1 Prediction of a Random Variable |
252 | 3.1.2 Prediction Using Least Squares |
259 | 3.1.3 Prediction Using a Stochastic Model |
264 | 3.1.4 Prediction Using an Autoregressive Model |
266 | 3.1.5 Joint Distribution of Two Normal Random Variables |
268 | 3.1.6 Conditional Distribution of a Random Variable |
269 | 3.2 Transformation of a Random Variable 3.2.1 Linear Transformation |
274 | 3.2.2 Logarithmic Transformation |
282 | 3.3 Arithmetic with Random Variables 3.3.1 Sum and Difference of Random Variables |
291 | 3.3.2 Sum and Difference of Normal Random Variables |
295 | 3.3.3 Product of Random Variables |
298 | 3.3.4 Quotient of Random Variables |
299 | 3.4 Sampling Distributions 3.4.1 Distribution of the Sample Mean |
301 | 3.4.2 The Central Limit Theorem |
311 | 3.4.3 Sampling the Uniform Distribution |
317 | 3.4.4 Testing the Sampling Distribution |
321 | 3.4.5 Testing the Normal Approximation by Regression |
323 | 3.5 Reliability 3.5.1 Reliability and Unreliability |
325 | 3.5.2 Reliability Criteria |
328 | 3.5.3 Reliability Assessment |
334 | 3.6 Hazard Function and Related Functions 3.6.1 Derivation of the Hazard Function |
336 | 3.6.2 Relations Among Probability Functions |
338 | 3.6.3 Mortality Rates |
347 | 3.6.4 Failure and Survival Probabilities and Expectations |
358 | 3.7 Probability and Return Periods 3.7.1 Probability Assignment by Data Ranking |
360 | 3.7.2 Return Periods |
362 | 3.7.3 Partial-Duration Series and Return Period |
372 | 3.7.4 Seasonal Distribution |
374 | 3.7.5 Interarrival Times |
376 | 3.7.6 Earthquake Probabilities and Return Periods |
381 | 4. Probabilistic Approach to Systems 4.1 The System as an Assembly of Components 4.1.1 Probabilistic Nature of Systems |
383 | 4.1.2 System Disaggregation |
386 | 4.1.3 Combinations and Permutations |
389 | 4.1.4 The k-out-of-n System |
391 | 4.2 System Structure 4.2.1 Serial and Parallel Systems |
397 | 4.2.2 Structure Functions |
401 | 4.2.3 Hydrosystems as Mixed Systems |
405 | 4.3. System Reliability Functions 4.3.1 System Reliability |
406 | 4.3.2 k-out-of-n Reliability |
416 | 4.3.3 Reliability of Serial Systems |
422 | 4.3.4 Reliability of Parallel Systems |
424 | 4.4 Redundancy 4.4.1 System Redundancy |
428 | 4.4.2 Component Redundancy |
430 | 4.4.3 Comparison of System and Component Redundancy |
433 | 4.5 Cut Sets and Tie Sets |
438 | 4.6 Standby |
442 | 5. Probabilistic Maintenance Concepts 5.1 Maintenance Options |
443 | 5.2 Maintenance Management |
446 | 5.3 Reliability-Centered Maintenance (RCM) |
448 | 5.4 Maintenance Times 5.4.1 Corrective Maintenance Time 5.4.2 Preventive Maintenance Time |
451 | 5.4.3 Downtime |
453 | 5.4.4 Downtime Distribution |
456 | 5.4.5 Maximum Downtime |
457 | 5.4.6 Expected Cycle Time |
460 | 5.5 Availability 5.5.1 Availability Under Corrective Maintenance 5.5.2 Availability Under Preventive Maintenance |
462 | 5.5.3 Transient and Steady-State Availability |
463 | 5.5.4 Expected Availability |
464 | 5.5.5 Availability and Reliability |
466 | 5.6 Maintainability 5.6.1 Maintainability Measures |
468 | 5.6.2 Accessibility |
469 | 5.7 Maintenance Strategy 5.7.1 Maintenance as Interference with a Random Process |
470 | 5.7.2 Maintenance Actions |
473 | 5.7.3 Event Tree as Decision Aid |
474 | 5.7.4 Examples of Successful and Failed Maintenance |
477 | 5.8 Economy of Maintenance 5.8.1 Benefit-Cost Analysis |
490 | 5.8.2 Probabilistic Benefit and Cost Streams |
495 | 5.8.3 Corrective Maintenance Economy |
498 | 5.8.4 Preventive Maintenance Economy |
502 | 5.8.5 The Economy of Premature Demise |
508 | 5.9 Maintenance Scheduling Methods 5.9.1 Critical Path Method (CPM) |
509 | 5.9.2 Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) |
512 | 6. Risk in Maintenance 6.1 Nature of Risk 6.1.1 Definition of Risk |
515 | 6.1.2 Types of Risk |
520 | 6.1.3 Hazard and Risk 6.1.4 Attitude Toward Risk |
521 | 6.1.5 Risk Perception |
523 | 6.2 Risk Transfer 6.2.1 The Principle of Insurance |
527 | 6.2.2 Types of Insurance |
533 | 6.2.3 Insurable and Uninsurable Risk |
536 | 6.2.4 Habitual Risk and Self-Insurance |
538 | 6.2.5 Effect of Insurance on Financial Position |
542 | 6.2.6 Liability |
543 | 6.2.7 Professional Liability Insurance |
545 | 6.2.8 Surety |
546 | 6.2.9 Liability Risks in the Deteriorating Infrastructure |
548 | 6.3 Risk Management 6.3.1 Elements of Risk Management |
552 | 6.3.2 Event-Consequence Relationships |
556 | 6.3.3 Risk Management in Maintenance |
557 | 6.3.4 Risk Control |
564 | 6.3.5 Risky Decisions |
568 | 6.4 Objective Risk Evaluation 6.4.1 Variance and Standard Deviation as Risk Measures |
570 | 6.4.2 Decision by Hypothesis Testing |
580 | 6.5 Subjective Risk Evaluation 6.5.1 Personal Probability |
581 | 6.5.2 Subjective Risk Measures |
587 | 6.5.3 Utility Function |
590 | 6.5.4 Utility Function—Related Risk Measures |
595 | 6.6 Risk Evaluation Example 6.6.1 Dam Rehabilitation Analysis |
600 | 6.6.2 Evaluation of Alternatives |
606 | 6.6.3 Subjective Risk Measures |
609 | 6.6.4 Benefit-Cost Analysis |
614 | 6.6.5 Discussion of Results |
619 | 6.7 Concluding Remarks |
622 | Glossary A B |
623 | C |
624 | D |
626 | E |
627 | F |
628 | G H I |
629 | J L |
630 | M |
631 | N O P |
633 | Q R |
635 | S |
638 | T |
639 | U V W |
642 | References |
660 | Index A B C D |
661 | E F |
662 | G H I J K L M |
663 | N O P Q R |
664 | S T |
665 | U V W |