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ASCE 9780784406724 2005

$75.29

Hydraulic Structures

Published By Publication Date Number of Pages
ASCE 2005 665
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Walter Wunderlich introduces readers to the field of probability theory and its applications in engineering.

PDF Catalog

PDF Pages PDF Title
6 Contents
20 1. Maintenance of the Infrastructure
1.1 The Role of Maintenance
22 1.2 Probabilistic Methods in Maintenance
27 1.3 Areas of Maintenance Activity
1.3.1 General Maintenance Objectives
1.3.2 Maintenance of Structural Integrity
28 1.3.3 Maintenance of System Operation
29 1.3.4 Maintenance Aimed at Incipient Failure Mechanisms
32 1.3.5 Hazard Ratings
34 1.4 State of the Infrastructure
1.4.1 Historical Perspective of the Water Infrastructure
35 1.4.2 Dam Inventory
42 1.4.3 Dam Inspection Findings
1.4.4 National Infrastructure Assessment
47 1.4.5 Dam Incidents and Failures
51 1.5 Regulations and Guidelines in Support of Maintenance
1.5.1 Government Regulations
53 1.5.2 BUREC’s Safety Evaluation of Existing Dams
57 1.5.3 Designer Legacies for Maintenance
58 1.5.4 Standing Operating Procedures
59 1.5.5 Review of Operation and Maintenance
60 1.5.6 FERC Project Engineering Guidelines
63 1.5.7 Maintenance Activities of the USACE
64 1.5.8 Maintenance Activities of the TVA
66 1.6 Probabilistic Maintenance Perceptions of Field Personnel
1.6.1 Survey of Maintenance Personnel
67 1.6.2 Selected Survey Questions
76 1.6.3 Features Desired by Maintenance Personnel
78 2. Elements of Probabilistic Methods
2.1 Sets, Events, and Probabilities
2.1.1 Sets
82 2.1.2 Events and Probabilities
91 2.1.3 Probabilities of Ordinary Sets
98 2.1.4 Conditional Probabilities
104 2.1.5 Bayes’ Formula
118 2.1.6 Murphy’s Law
119 2.2 Probabilistic Variables and Functions
2.2.1 Probabilistic Variables
122 2.2.2 Probabilistic Functions
123 2.2.3 Probabilistic Processes
133 2.2.4 Probabilistic Models
138 2.3 Mean and Variance
2.3.1 Population Mean
140 2.3.2 Population Variance
141 2.3.3 Coefficient of Variation
142 2.4 Calculating with Expectations and Variances
2.4.1 Individual Data Versus Expectation as Input
145 2.4.2 Variance of Linear and Nonlinear Relations
146 2.4.3 Variance of a Sum or Difference
148 2.4.4 Sample Mean and Sample Variance
155 2.4.5 Confidence Bands
157 2.4.6 Chebyshev Inequality
160 2.5 Probability Functions
2.5.1 Probability Density Function
161 2.5.2 Cumulative Distribution Function
164 2.5.3 Moments of the Random Variable
166 2.6 Gaussian Probability Density Function
2.6.1 Derivation of the Probability Density Function
171 2.6.2 Cumulative Distribution Function and Reliability
182 2.6.3 Dispersion of the Probability Density Function
186 2.6.4 Polynomial Approximation and Inversion of the cdf
192 2.6.5 Judgmental Establishment of the pdf
195 2.6.6 Quality Control Based on the pdf
197 2.7 Other Probability Distributions
2.7.1 Selected Distributions
198 2.7.2 Binomial Distribution
210 2.7.3 Uniform Distribution
213 2.7.4 Triangular Distribution
215 2.7.5 Exponential Distribution
218 2.7.6 Beta Distribution
222 2.7.7 Poisson Distribution
228 2.7.8 Weibull Distribution
235 2.7.9 Student’s t-Distribution
244 3. Calculating with Random Variables
3.1 Prediction
3.1.1 Prediction of a Random Variable
252 3.1.2 Prediction Using Least Squares
259 3.1.3 Prediction Using a Stochastic Model
264 3.1.4 Prediction Using an Autoregressive Model
266 3.1.5 Joint Distribution of Two Normal Random Variables
268 3.1.6 Conditional Distribution of a Random Variable
269 3.2 Transformation of a Random Variable
3.2.1 Linear Transformation
274 3.2.2 Logarithmic Transformation
282 3.3 Arithmetic with Random Variables
3.3.1 Sum and Difference of Random Variables
291 3.3.2 Sum and Difference of Normal Random Variables
295 3.3.3 Product of Random Variables
298 3.3.4 Quotient of Random Variables
299 3.4 Sampling Distributions
3.4.1 Distribution of the Sample Mean
301 3.4.2 The Central Limit Theorem
311 3.4.3 Sampling the Uniform Distribution
317 3.4.4 Testing the Sampling Distribution
321 3.4.5 Testing the Normal Approximation by Regression
323 3.5 Reliability
3.5.1 Reliability and Unreliability
325 3.5.2 Reliability Criteria
328 3.5.3 Reliability Assessment
334 3.6 Hazard Function and Related Functions
3.6.1 Derivation of the Hazard Function
336 3.6.2 Relations Among Probability Functions
338 3.6.3 Mortality Rates
347 3.6.4 Failure and Survival Probabilities and Expectations
358 3.7 Probability and Return Periods
3.7.1 Probability Assignment by Data Ranking
360 3.7.2 Return Periods
362 3.7.3 Partial-Duration Series and Return Period
372 3.7.4 Seasonal Distribution
374 3.7.5 Interarrival Times
376 3.7.6 Earthquake Probabilities and Return Periods
381 4. Probabilistic Approach to Systems
4.1 The System as an Assembly of Components
4.1.1 Probabilistic Nature of Systems
383 4.1.2 System Disaggregation
386 4.1.3 Combinations and Permutations
389 4.1.4 The k-out-of-n System
391 4.2 System Structure
4.2.1 Serial and Parallel Systems
397 4.2.2 Structure Functions
401 4.2.3 Hydrosystems as Mixed Systems
405 4.3. System Reliability Functions
4.3.1 System Reliability
406 4.3.2 k-out-of-n Reliability
416 4.3.3 Reliability of Serial Systems
422 4.3.4 Reliability of Parallel Systems
424 4.4 Redundancy
4.4.1 System Redundancy
428 4.4.2 Component Redundancy
430 4.4.3 Comparison of System and Component Redundancy
433 4.5 Cut Sets and Tie Sets
438 4.6 Standby
442 5. Probabilistic Maintenance Concepts
5.1 Maintenance Options
443 5.2 Maintenance Management
446 5.3 Reliability-Centered Maintenance (RCM)
448 5.4 Maintenance Times
5.4.1 Corrective Maintenance Time
5.4.2 Preventive Maintenance Time
451 5.4.3 Downtime
453 5.4.4 Downtime Distribution
456 5.4.5 Maximum Downtime
457 5.4.6 Expected Cycle Time
460 5.5 Availability
5.5.1 Availability Under Corrective Maintenance
5.5.2 Availability Under Preventive Maintenance
462 5.5.3 Transient and Steady-State Availability
463 5.5.4 Expected Availability
464 5.5.5 Availability and Reliability
466 5.6 Maintainability
5.6.1 Maintainability Measures
468 5.6.2 Accessibility
469 5.7 Maintenance Strategy
5.7.1 Maintenance as Interference with a Random Process
470 5.7.2 Maintenance Actions
473 5.7.3 Event Tree as Decision Aid
474 5.7.4 Examples of Successful and Failed Maintenance
477 5.8 Economy of Maintenance
5.8.1 Benefit-Cost Analysis
490 5.8.2 Probabilistic Benefit and Cost Streams
495 5.8.3 Corrective Maintenance Economy
498 5.8.4 Preventive Maintenance Economy
502 5.8.5 The Economy of Premature Demise
508 5.9 Maintenance Scheduling Methods
5.9.1 Critical Path Method (CPM)
509 5.9.2 Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
512 6. Risk in Maintenance
6.1 Nature of Risk
6.1.1 Definition of Risk
515 6.1.2 Types of Risk
520 6.1.3 Hazard and Risk
6.1.4 Attitude Toward Risk
521 6.1.5 Risk Perception
523 6.2 Risk Transfer
6.2.1 The Principle of Insurance
527 6.2.2 Types of Insurance
533 6.2.3 Insurable and Uninsurable Risk
536 6.2.4 Habitual Risk and Self-Insurance
538 6.2.5 Effect of Insurance on Financial Position
542 6.2.6 Liability
543 6.2.7 Professional Liability Insurance
545 6.2.8 Surety
546 6.2.9 Liability Risks in the Deteriorating Infrastructure
548 6.3 Risk Management
6.3.1 Elements of Risk Management
552 6.3.2 Event-Consequence Relationships
556 6.3.3 Risk Management in Maintenance
557 6.3.4 Risk Control
564 6.3.5 Risky Decisions
568 6.4 Objective Risk Evaluation
6.4.1 Variance and Standard Deviation as Risk Measures
570 6.4.2 Decision by Hypothesis Testing
580 6.5 Subjective Risk Evaluation
6.5.1 Personal Probability
581 6.5.2 Subjective Risk Measures
587 6.5.3 Utility Function
590 6.5.4 Utility Function—Related Risk Measures
595 6.6 Risk Evaluation Example
6.6.1 Dam Rehabilitation Analysis
600 6.6.2 Evaluation of Alternatives
606 6.6.3 Subjective Risk Measures
609 6.6.4 Benefit-Cost Analysis
614 6.6.5 Discussion of Results
619 6.7 Concluding Remarks
622 Glossary
A
B
623 C
624 D
626 E
627 F
628 G
H
I
629 J
L
630 M
631 N
O
P
633 Q
R
635 S
638 T
639 U
V
W
642 References
660 Index
A
B
C
D
661 E
F
662 G
H
I
J
K
L
M
663 N
O
P
Q
R
664 S
T
665 U
V
W
ASCE 9780784406724 2005
$75.29